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Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction

The succession of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: positive announcements are issued from different nations. Significant resources is devoted on containing particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "peace".

Nighttime Reality

As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from across the border, a capacity provided through timely intelligence. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been deployed to engage hostile cruise missiles streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.

Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: multiple launches deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably provided by Western nations. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly becomes grim resignation: maybe the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from devastation and another blackout.

Continuous Dangers

Following this, a large-caliber weapon engaged a drone close by, part of a defensive team – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its target.

With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: seven people killed, destruction and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a dependence that European nations are evidently unprepared to substitute in the near term.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The 28-point plan from American leadership generated strong feelings, discussion and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.

Every new initiative from Washington follows the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, no doubt, endure.

Strategic Calculations

It is easy to blame particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership works based on a assumption familiar among international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House assumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to surrender the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does little to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from thinking that the status quo will not shift further in its advantage in the months ahead.

Conflicting Perspectives

Therefore, Moscow is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the result.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing civilians and areas but preventing a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its benefit.

Present Conditions

Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: personal goals to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not move to internal issues. And although their objective will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.

These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.

Assessment and Future

It took a mere seven days to eliminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.

While new plans based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, mainly require ongoing international assistance.